<@527748798584455180> Important things to note:
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- Use the template below for your submission.
- Type $close when ready for review.
Theory:
Substats for artifacts are unevenly distributed, with flat substats weighted higher than other substats, and crit substats weighted lower than other substats.
Evidence:
TL;DR - We have the datamined substat probabilities from this link: https://github.com/Dimbreath/GenshinData/blob/main/Excel/ReliquaryAffixExcelConfigData.json
(Image summarizing this data is here: https://imgur.com/k2d3S3J)
The datamined figures are not exactly consistent with what we would expect from the actual data, but it is fairly close, and we might see better agreement with more data. See this picture (https://imgur.com/6VVaPt1) for the guesses that most closely aligns with the data. Flat substats definitely have a higher probability of being included than non-flat substats (by maybe ~1.7x), and crit is likely to be weighted lower.
I'm mostly submitting this since the entry in the current TCL (under the Artifact Substat Distribution header) uses a small sample size and the conclusions reached there are likely incorrect now that we have more/better data.
Data: I pulled artifact data from /u/Acheron-X's table here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQdCZN4lM23LNfSU36-zEKXC7sXBzeywSGhT1JW9SlqytYXHHFNVXos1yI0UPMqSyTU7KOe36mtjK9d/pubhtml#. The tables and charts in there shouldn't be used directly because it pools artifacts with different #s of substats together, which leads to a slightly biased picture because you can't have repeating substats and they can't be the same as the main stat, so in artifacts with 3 substats for example, the "missing" fourth slot in the data is determined by which other substats (and main stat) have already shown up in that artifact.(edited)
Dimbreath/GenshinData
Repository containing the game data for the game Genshin Impact. - Dimbreath/GenshinData
Yuehai Ticketing SecretaryBOTJan 30, 2021 12:11 AM
Ticket Closed by <@527748798584455180>
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TsymJan 30, 2021 12:18 AM
(Split into another post since there's a 2k character limit for messages I guess)
Methodology: I pulled out data for 4 substat and 3 substat artifacts to analyze separately since those are the least biased, then ran a simulation after plugging in some guesses for the main stat and substat probabilities, and compared those simulated figures to the actual distributions. I settled on a rough proportion after getting something that seemed close enough to the sample. See the below spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1d9nC3x5Ho2lOfmUUMdgKq5h2cZ69VZ_m58OzKlh_muo/
More data would be needed to reach stronger conclusions. As of right now there's only enough data to get a sense of the right substat probabilities, but the ones assumed below are highly subject to change.
Significance:
The artifact grind is real and artifacts with good substats are rarer than you'd naively expect since you'll see ones with flat substats much more often.(edited)
Genshin Impact Substat Distribution Estimation v1
Data - 4 Substats
From Simulation - .9:1.7:1 Crit to Flat to All Other Ratio
Roughly Guessed Base Substat Probabilities,Substat,Substat 1 Count,Substat 2 Count,Substat 3 Count,Substat 4 Count,Total Count,Share,Substat,Share,Difference,Chi-Square Test,Chi-Square 95% Statistic,Artifact Type,,Main...
Repository containing the game data for the game Genshin Impact. - Dimbreath/GenshinData
TsymFeb 28, 2021 1:05 AM
oh yeah I totally forgot to update this submission based on the datamined weights. I changed the original submission to frame it as the two sources roughly corroborating each other.
.R.I.P.Mar 22, 2021 8:53 PM
<@!527748798584455180> I'm just going to move this down to ready for publishing as math has already been verified.
Unless you have something else you'd like to add
TsymMar 22, 2021 10:15 PM
nothing else to add - I actually forgot about this since real life got busy. Thanks!
capri sun specialeMar 28, 2021 4:20 AM
Sort of out of scope for this particular submission since the question it is trying to ask is if substat distributions are unequal, but if you want to check if user submitted data actually follows the distribution of the datamined figures, then you should do a chi square test. If it fails to reject the hypothesis that the rates are the same, then as a community we can confidently base math around the datamined figures.
I don't think we can accept the datamined figures as gospel because from an online game design perspective it would be extremely silly for them to implement artifact substat generation on the client side (incredibly easy to cheat*), which makes the existence of such values in datamine very interesting.
* Methods:
1. Patch the files where artifacts rates are stored and patch out instructions related to anti cheat detection of modified files
2. If substats are initially generated on client side then it must send that information over to the server in order to store it. Extract out the encryption for the UDP communication and route network calls to proxy which decrpyts and modifies message related to sending substat information before sending it to the server. (Decrypting TCP messages and forwarding to proxy is already known to work)
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